BIG 12 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BREAKDOWN
Alright folks, let's talk Big 12 championship scenarios. Man, this season feels wilder than most. Every week, the standings get flipped upside down like a pancake at a busy diner. One minute you think you've got it figured, the next - bam! - some underdog pulls off the impossible. Trying to keep track of who needs what to reach Arlington is giving me flashbacks to that crazy 2017 season. Remember that chaos?
If you're like me, you spend Sundays scouring forums and news sites trying to piece together the playoff picture. It shouldn't be this complicated, right? That's why I sat down and mapped out every single path for every team still in the hunt. No fluff, just straight talk about wins, losses, and those pesky tiebreakers that always seem to trip everyone up.
How the Big 12 Championship Game Actually Works
First things first. Let's clear up how teams even get there. Forget divisions - the Big 12 ditched those a while back. Now it's just the two teams with the best conference records battling it out at AT&T Stadium. Sounds simple? Ha! Not when you've got 14 teams and everyone playing a different schedule.
The tiebreakers... oh man, the tiebreakers. If two teams are tied, they look head-to-head. If three or more are tied? Buckle up. It goes through a whole flowchart: records against the group, records against the next highest-placed team, offensive points scored in conference games (seriously!), and finally, a coin flip. Yeah, a coin flip. Saw that almost happen in 2020 and it was stressful just watching.
| Tiebreaker Step | What Happens | Example Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Head-to-Head | Did Team A beat Team B? That's your answer. | Oklahoma beats Texas? Sooners go if tied. |
| Record vs. Group | Win percentage against all other tied teams. | Texas, K-State, Iowa State tied? See who has best combined record against the other two. |
| Record vs Next Best | Compare records against the highest-ranked common opponent outside the tie. | If OU, OSU, Kansas tied, see how each did against (say) Texas. |
| Offensive Points Scored | Total points scored in ALL conference games. | Controversial? Yep. Seen teams run up scores late because of this. |
| Coin Flip | Literally flipping a coin at Big 12 HQ. | Almost happened with OU & OSU in 2020. Commissioner looked ready to sweat through his suit. |
Important note: The conference record is EVERYTHING. Doesn't matter if you crushed non-conference opponents or lost a heartbreaker to an FCS team (looking at you, 2021 Texas Tech). Only the Big 12 games count for getting to Arlington. That loss to BYU stings way more than one to Alabama for title hopes.
Team-by-Team Paths: Who Controls Their Destiny?
Okay, let's get into the meat of it. Here's where every contender stands right now and what they absolutely need to happen. I'll be honest, some teams need miracles. Others just need to handle business. We'll go from most control to longest odds.
Texas Longhorns Situation
The Horns are sitting pretty. Their win over Alabama? Massive for the playoffs, but for the Big 12 title game, it’s all about league play. They’ve got the inside track.
- Current Conference Record: 4-1 (as of Week 8)
- Key Games Left: vs Kansas State, at Iowa State, at TCU, vs Texas Tech
- Scenario 1 (Win Out): They win the conference outright. Period. No questions asked. Book the bus to Arlington.
- Scenario 2 (One Loss): Still very likely in. Depends who beats them and how others fare. Lose to K-State? Could get messy if OU also wins out. Lose to TCU? Less damaging.
- Scenario 3 (Two Losses): Things get dicey. Need significant help from others losing. Probably need both OU and K-State to drop another game.
My take: Sark has these guys rolling, but that trip to Ames scares me. Iowa State at night? Brutal environment. If they survive that, I like their chances.
Oklahoma Sooners Situation
OU rebounded nicely after that Red River shocker. They're still very much alive, maybe even more motivated.
- Current Conference Record: 4-1
- Key Games Left: at Oklahoma State (Bedlam!), vs West Virginia, at BYU, vs TCU
- Scenario 1 (Win Out): Very strong position. Almost certainly in, likely as the #1 seed unless Texas also wins out (then H2H tiebreaker goes to Texas).
- Scenario 2 (Beat OSU but Lose One): Still decent shot. Need Texas to lose at least one more (preferably two). K-State losses also help.
- Scenario 3 (Lose Bedlam): Big trouble. Would need a LOT of chaos above them. Might require Texas losing out? Unlikely.
Bedlam Matters More Than Ever: With OU leaving for the SEC, this final scheduled Bedlam game in Stillwater isn't just about pride. It could decide Oklahoma's entire Big 12 championship scenario. Lose, and their path narrows drastically. Win, and they control their fate. The pressure is immense.
Kansas State Wildcats Situation
Chris Klieman's crew is lurking. That loss to Missouri looks worse now, but in-conference, they're right there.
- Current Conference Record: 3-1
- Key Games Left: at Texas, vs Houston, vs Kansas, at Iowa State, vs Kansas
- Scenario 1 (Win Out): Almost definitely in. Would hold tiebreakers over Texas and potentially OU depending on other results.
- Scenario 2 (Beat Texas, Lose One Other): Very possible path. Needs OU to lose once more OR Texas to lose again besides their game. Head-to-head over Texas is huge.
- Scenario 3 (Lose to Texas): Gets much harder. Would need to win every other game AND hope both Texas and OU lose twice more. Unlikely.
K-State's defense is legit. If Avery Johnson keeps growing at QB, they're dangerous. That trip to Austin is massive for their Big 12 championship scenarios.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Situation
Pokes are the enigma. Looked awful early, now surging. Typical Gundy.
- Current Conference Record: 3-1
- Key Games Left: vs Oklahoma (Bedlam!), at UCF, at Houston, vs BYU
- Scenario 1 (Win Out, incl. Bedlam): Strong case. Would have beaten OU. Need Texas to lose at least twice OR K-State to lose twice.
- Scenario 2 (Win Bedlam, Lose One Other): Needs major help. Requires both Texas and K-State to lose twice AND OU to lose again besides Bedlam. Long odds.
- Scenario 3 (Lose Bedlam): Pretty much eliminates them unless absolute chaos (like 5 teams finishing 6-3). Don't bet on it.
Ollie Gordon is carrying that offense. If he stays healthy, they can beat anyone. But can the defense hold up? That Bedlam game in Stillwater... gonna be electric.
The Dark Horses (Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas)
These guys need help, but it's not impossible. Stranger things have happened.
| Team | Current Record | Must Win... | Need These Teams to Lose... | Realistic Chance? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 3-2 | OUT (vs Texas, vs K-State) | Texas (twice), OU (twice), K-State (twice), OSU (once) | Very Slim. Home games give a puncher's chance, but needing 4+ teams to collapse is asking too much. |
| West Virginia | 3-2 | OUT (at Oklahoma, vs Texas) | Texas (twice), OU (twice), K-State (twice), OSU (once), ISU (once) | Extremely Slim. That loss to Houston really hurt. Schedule is brutal down the stretch. |
| Kansas | 2-3 | OUT (vs K-State, vs Texas) | Texas (all remaining), OU (all remaining), K-State (all remaining except to KU), OSU (twice), ISU, WVU | Basically Zero. Jalon Daniels' health killed their season. Maybe next year. |
Honestly? Iowa State has the best shot of this bunch because they play Texas AND K-State at home in Jack Trice. That place gets nuts at night. If they pull both upsets *and* get a monsoon of losses elsewhere... maybe? But I wouldn't mortgage the farm on it. West Virginia's offense is fun, but that defense... oof. Kansas? Just too many injuries and too much ground to make up.
Critical Games That Will Decide Everything
Forget the rest of the schedule. Circle these dates. The Big 12 championship scenarios hinge on these matchups:
- Texas vs Kansas State (Nov 4th): Huge. If K-State wins, they jump into the driver's seat and put Texas under serious pressure. If Texas wins, they almost lock up a spot and severely dent K-State's hopes. Can Will Howard outduel Ewers? I'm skeptical.
- Bedlam: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov 4th): Last scheduled Bedlam for the foreseeable future. Winner stays firmly in the hunt, loser is hanging by a thread. Expect fireworks. Gordon vs the OU front seven is the key battle.
- Texas at Iowa State (Nov 18th): Classic trap game for Texas. Sandwiched between TCU and Tech. Cold weather in Ames? Night game? Cyclones always play spoiler. If Texas is still unbeaten in conference, this is where it could crack.
- Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov 25th): Could be an elimination game or a play-in game depending on earlier results. K-State needs it more, but ISU at home to end the season? Tough ask for the Cats.
- Texas vs Texas Tech (Black Friday, Nov 24th): Tech has nothing to lose and loves ruining Texas' day. If the Big 12 title game spot is on the line, DKR will be rocking... or incredibly tense.
Miss one of these games and you might miss the moment the entire Big 12 championship picture shifts. Set your DVRs.
Weather Watch: Late November games in Ames and Manhattan introduce a wild card: weather. Cold, wind, even snow drastically changes game plans. A team built on passing (like Texas) faces a much stiffer challenge than a ground-and-pound team (like K-State) in those conditions. Factor this into any late-season scenarios!
Predicting the Most Likely Big 12 Championship Scenarios
Based on what we've seen and the schedules, here's my best guess at how this shakes out. Call it an educated hunch.
| Likelihood | Matchup Prediction | Key Reasons | Potential Wildcard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most Likely (55%) | Texas vs Oklahoma (Rematch!) | Texas navigates K-State & ISU tests. OU wins Bedlam & handles WVU/TCU. Both finish 8-1 or 7-2 with Texas holding H2H. | Texas stumbling in Ames; OU losing focus post-Bedlam. |
| Strong Chance (30%) | Texas vs Kansas State | K-State pulls the upset in Austin. Texas still wins out otherwise. K-State handles business against ISU/KU. OU drops one more (WVU or TCU). | K-State dropping a surprise game to Houston or KU; OU winning out. |
| Outside Shot (10%) | Oklahoma State vs Kansas State | OSU wins Bedlam. Texas loses to K-State AND one other (ISU/Tech). OU collapses. K-State wins out. OSU wins out. | Texas imploding completely; OSU defense becoming elite overnight. |
| Long Shot (5%) | Texas vs Iowa State | Chaos reigns. Texas loses to K-State & ISU. OU loses twice more. K-State loses twice. ISU wins out including upsets over Texas & K-State. | ISU finding explosive offense; Campbell pulling off coaching masterpiece. |
I just don't see a path where OU doesn't figure it out after the Texas loss. Their schedule is manageable. Texas has the toughest road but also the most talent. K-State is the disciplined team that could grind its way there. OSU feels like a year away, but Bedlam changes everything. An ISU run would be pure madness, but fun to dream about.
Big 12 Championship Game Logistics: What Fans Need to Know
Okay, so your team makes it. Now what? Arlington awaits. Here’s the practical stuff fans ask about.
Date, Time, and Location
Mark your calendars: Saturday, December 2nd, 2023. Kickoff time is usually 11:00 AM or 2:30 PM Central Time, announced a couple of weeks prior. ABC broadcasts it nationally.
The game is played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas – Jerry World. Massive stadium, insane screen, but honestly? Atmosphere can feel a bit sterile compared to campus sites. Tailgating happens in the designated lots, but get there early. Traffic is no joke.
Getting Tickets
Ticketmaster is the official seller. Prices start crazy high then usually drop closer to game day unless it's a marquee matchup (like Texas-OU).
- Initial Release: Through the participating schools' athletic departments. Season ticket holders get first dibs, often requiring a donation. Hurts the wallet.
- Secondary Market: StubHub, SeatGeek, VividSeats. Monitor prices daily. If a less popular team makes it, prices can plummet by Friday.
- Pro Tip: Check the team-specific fan forums. Sometimes season ticket holders sell below market value to fellow fans. Avoid scalpers outside the stadium.
Where to Stay
Arlington hotels hike prices for the game. Book MONTHS in advance if possible.
- Close & Expensive: Hotels near the stadium (Sheraton, Live! by Loews). Walkable but pricey.
- Better Value: Look in Irving, Grapevine, or Fort Worth (20-30 min drive/Uber). More options, better rates.
- Tailgating Note: Many hotels offer shuttles. Worth it to avoid parking hassles ($50+ for stadium lots).
Personally, I stayed in Fort Worth last year. Cheaper, great food options, and the drive wasn't bad pre-game (post-game traffic is always brutal). Uber surge pricing after the game? Brutal. Consider waiting it out at a nearby bar.
Your Big 12 Championship Scenarios Questions Answered (FAQ)
See these questions popping up everywhere. Let's tackle them head-on.
Can a team with two conference losses still make the Big 12 Championship game?Answer: Absolutely, yes. It happens more often than you think in a deep league. It depends entirely on how many losses the *other* top teams have. If multiple teams finish 7-2, tiebreakers decide it. If the top teams have 8-1 or 7-1 records, then a 7-2 team is likely out. But if chaos reigns and the best records are 7-2? Absolutely. In 2020, Iowa State made it at 8-1, OU at 6-2. Two losses can definitely get you there.
Answer: This is where it gets fun (or frustrating). The Big 12 uses a multi-step tiebreaker system specifically for 3+ teams. Here's the simplified order:
* Step 1: Compare each team's record against the other tied teams. (e.g., Did Team A beat Team B and Team C? Did Team B beat Team C?).
* Step 2: If still tied, compare their records against the next highest-placed common conference opponent (working down the standings until the tie is broken).
* Step 3: If STILL tied, it goes to overall point differential in conference games (total points scored minus total points allowed).
* Step 4: If STILL tied? Total points scored in conference games.
* Step 5: Coin flip. Seriously. Happened once years ago in another conference. Big 12 hasn't needed it... yet.
Answer: Nope. Not one bit. Zero impact. Only your record against Big 12 opponents (conference games) determines your standing for the championship game. Getting blown out by Georgia or losing to an FCS team is embarrassing, but it doesn't hurt your chances of playing in Arlington. Winning those games might help playoff rankings, but not the Big 12 title shot.
Answer: Definitely! Kansas State won it last year (2022). TCU won it in 2022 (played Michigan in playoff). Baylor won back-to-back in 2013 and 2014. Oklahoma did it several times (2015-2018!). It's tough with roster turnover, but sustained success is possible. K-State has a shot this year to repeat.
Answer: Not necessarily out, but it makes it significantly harder, bordering on impossible unless you're a 1-loss team that lost a close game to another playoff contender. Georgia lost the SEC title game last year and still got in because they were 12-0. A 2-loss Big 12 champ is usually a lock for the playoff. A 2-loss non-champ? Highly unlikely, unless there's utter carnage in other conferences. Winning the Big 12 title game is almost always the only path for a Big 12 team to the playoff.
Why This Year Feels Different (And Why I Love/Hate It)
This Big 12 season, man... it's the end of an era. Texas and Oklahoma are bolting for the SEC next year. This is our last dance with the Red River Rivalry meaning Big 12 title implications. It feels heavier, more intense. Every Bedlam, every Sunflower Showdown, every Texas-Tech Black Friday game – they all have this underlying buzz of finality.
Parity is nuts. Remember when OU and Texas were supposed to walk this? Shows what we know. Kansas is feisty when healthy. UCF and Houston are finding their feet. BYU and Cincinnati add real flavor. The depth is incredible, even if the top-end might not scare Georgia or Michigan *yet*. It makes every Saturday must-watch TV because literally anyone can beat anyone on any given week. It's exhausting as a fan but incredible as a neutral.
Predicting these Big 12 championship scenarios is a nightmare, but it's the good kind of nightmare. The kind that keeps you glued to the TV, phone in hand, checking scores and tiebreaker rules. It's messy, unpredictable, and utterly compelling. That's Big 12 football in 2023. Enjoy the ride, folks. Arlington is calling, and half the league still has a shot to answer. Who wants it more?
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